How Far-Right AfD Breakthrough May Cause Absolute Chaos in Germany

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has long been a thorn in the side of mainstream German politics. However, Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt marked a watershed moment, with the far-right party securing nearly 44% of the vote and coming within three seats of an absolute majority.

This result is not surprising, given Eastern Germany’s economic woes and decades of neglect. The region has long been a hotbed of discontent, with simmering resentments towards the federal government in Berlin. The AfD has tapped into these grievances, presenting itself as a champion of the working class and defender of traditional German values.

The party’s appeal extends far beyond its usual suspects, including working-class voters, those with low levels of qualification, and even voters across different age groups. As Ed Turner, a German politics specialist at Aston University, notes, the AfD did particularly well amongst these demographics.

This broader appeal raises questions about the nature of the AfD’s support base. Is it merely a manifestation of far-right tropes – xenophobia, anti-immigrant sentiment, and nostalgia for a bygone era? Or does it represent something more complex: a deep-seated dissatisfaction with post-reunification order in Germany?

The BSW, a populist left-leaning party with immigration-sceptic views and pro-Russia sympathies, may hold the key to unlocking this puzzle. The BSW’s plan to govern Saxony-Anhalt without a traditional minister-president could provide a lifeline for the AfD. If the BSW were to abstain or even vote for the AfD in the upcoming parliamentary vote, it would mark a seismic shift in German politics.

The implications of this breakthrough are far-reaching. The “firewall” consensus that has long protected Germany from far-right influence at the state level is now under strain. The CDU’s failure to secure an outright majority means it must navigate coalition-building with parties like the BSW or even the AfD itself.

This development raises uncomfortable questions about democratic consensus in Europe, particularly given the rise of the far right in Germany, Italy, and other parts of the continent. The BSW’s willingness to engage with the AfD highlights the need for a more nuanced understanding of European politics.

In the coming weeks and months, the AfD will push for radical policy changes at the state level, including overhauling education curricula and dismantling integration policies. However, what will be the long-term consequences of this shift? Will it create a domino effect, with other far-right parties in Europe seeking to emulate the AfD’s success?

As Germany navigates this uncertain terrain, one thing is clear: the status quo is no longer tenable. The AfD’s breakthrough has exposed deep-seated fault lines within German society and forced a reckoning with the country’s troubled past. It remains to be seen whether this will prove a catalyst for positive change or a harbinger of chaos.